Tropical Depression Five is not that impressive now, but the current National Weather Service Discussion suggests that "Hurricane Ernesto" could be a Category 2 (or possibly Category 3) hurricane as it passes the Western end of Cuba, entering the southern Gulf of Mexico, heading north, where it could potentially gain even more strength.
National Weather Service Discussion: (Underline and emphasis mine)
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THELARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARDAND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERNCARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEENKNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULDREDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLEENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME AHURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THEUNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEWINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FORTHE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...
IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TOINVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDSTHE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEFORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.5N 66.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.2N 68.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 71.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.9N 76.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 80.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 84.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
